PGT-P returns are worthwhile now, I would say. Karavani et al. (2019) calls 2.5 IQ points "limited utility" and some consider these returns small but if this was IQ points lost, I think people would feel differently. For example, if some environmental influence was causing a 2.5 point deprivation in their child, many would consider this substantial. IQ is very an important variable.
Genomic Prediction's group (Hsu, Widen, Tellier, Lello, Raben) used UK BioBank data to get a predictor that resulted in 4 DALYs over average when in a group of 10 individuals [2] That's worthwhile if a mother is already undergoing IVF, and especially if the embryo is already being screened for aneuploidy. This might be enough to motivate some young women to get their eggs frozen sooner.
What's really exciting is that it's going to get better quickly. If we get in vitro gametogenesis in humans, it's going to be a game changer. Not only will it make PGT-P much easier, it'll mean larger batch sizes with better selection. If we have iterated embryo selection, we can get into smarter-than-anyone-ever territory with enough generations. These genetic interventions will be soon be more important than any known environmental interventions. This is even more the case if we get multiplex genome-editing without major issues.
This research should definitely be considered a moral priority. Massive IQ gains at higher levels would have considerable positive benefits, especially if "smart fraction" theories are true. [3] And it would accelerate scientific and technological research, bringing all the additional benefits of that. Incredibly important stuff.
PGT-P returns are worthwhile now, I would say. Karavani et al. (2019) calls 2.5 IQ points "limited utility" and some consider these returns small but if this was IQ points lost, I think people would feel differently. For example, if some environmental influence was causing a 2.5 point deprivation in their child, many would consider this substantial. IQ is very an important variable.
Genomic Prediction's group (Hsu, Widen, Tellier, Lello, Raben) used UK BioBank data to get a predictor that resulted in 4 DALYs over average when in a group of 10 individuals [2] That's worthwhile if a mother is already undergoing IVF, and especially if the embryo is already being screened for aneuploidy. This might be enough to motivate some young women to get their eggs frozen sooner.
What's really exciting is that it's going to get better quickly. If we get in vitro gametogenesis in humans, it's going to be a game changer. Not only will it make PGT-P much easier, it'll mean larger batch sizes with better selection. If we have iterated embryo selection, we can get into smarter-than-anyone-ever territory with enough generations. These genetic interventions will be soon be more important than any known environmental interventions. This is even more the case if we get multiplex genome-editing without major issues.
This research should definitely be considered a moral priority. Massive IQ gains at higher levels would have considerable positive benefits, especially if "smart fraction" theories are true. [3] And it would accelerate scientific and technological research, bringing all the additional benefits of that. Incredibly important stuff.
[1] Karavani et al. (2019) https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31761530/
[2] Widen et al. (2022) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-22637-8
[3] https://kirkegaard.substack.com/p/smart-fraction-theory-vindicated
How do you know so much?